Housing has largely bounced back from the crash, with several key gauges again at healthy, pre-collapse levels, according to the newly released State of the Nation’s Housing report, published by the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University. A definitive recovery in home prices, growth in home-building and unbridled demand are strengthening the market, the report reveals, but affordability is putting pressure on progress, especially for low- and middle-income households:
By many metrics, the housing market has overcome the worst effects of the housing bust. Nominal house prices have regained previous peaks, construction volumes are nearing their long-term averages, and household growth is becoming more balanced between the owner and renter markets.
– “State of the Nation’s Housing 2017,” Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University
Home prices nationally appreciated 5.6 percent in 2016, resurrecting equity buried in the recession, the report shows—but, when adjusted for inflation, most homeowners have not yet fully realized wealth that was lost. Prices rose in 97 of the nation’s 100 largest metropolitan markets, but prices in 32 of those markets have not beaten their prior peaks. Prices in areas on the East and West Coasts have made substantial strides, while prices in portions of the Midwest and South have fallen behind, contributing to an affordability divide—prices in the 10 metropolitan markets with the most appreciation, in fact, average $575,000, more than four times the average in the 10 markets with the least appreciation.
Home-building, at the same time, netted 1.17 million units—up from 2015, but still down compared to activity in the 1980s and ’90s. The building of single-family homes expanded by 9.4 percent, but the building of smaller single-family homes and townhouses, which are in severely short supply, fell—a trend that has persisted for the past decade. Building continues to be tamped down by regulatory burdens, scarce labor and shrinking available acreage.
“While the recovery in home prices reflects a welcome pick-up in demand, it is also being driven by very tight supply,” says Chris Herbert, managing director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies. “Any excess housing that may have been built during the boom years has been absorbed, and a stronger supply response is going to be needed to keep pace with demand—particularly for moderately-priced homes.”
Though fewer households are cost-burdened—or spending over 30 percent of their income on housing—many are still struggling, particularly renters, according to the report. Over the last five years, the share of cost-burdened owner households has seen a sharper decline than the share of cost-burdened renter households: 6.5 percent versus 1.9 percent.
“The problem is most acute for renters,” Herbert says. “More than 11 million renter households paid more than half of their incomes for housing in 2015, leaving little room to pay for life’s other necessities.”
There is a brighter outlook for the homeownership rate, which could rebound if household formation pans out as predicted, the report reveals. Low-income, minority and renter households are expected to considerably contribute to growth, with affordability playing a major role, …read more
From:: Finance and Economy