Mobile phone export data from Chinese provinces has left Wells Fargo analysts feeling cautious about Apple Inc.’s current iPhone cycle, according to a note published Thursday. An analysis of iPhone-related data points from different parts of the most recent quarter shows shipments excluding China in the low to mid-60 million unit range, compared with 63.4 million units in the fourth quarter of 2016, “which would leave us at an implied 15-20 million iPhone shipments in China (vs. 14.9 million in 4Q16) – a shipment level we currently see as optimistic,” analysts led by Aaron Rakers wrote. “Currently see limited/no upside potential to our 81.2M iPhone ship estimate.” Data for four key iPhone provinces, namely Henan, Shanghai, Shanxi and Jiangsu shows mobile phone exports up 18% in dollar terms in November, but up less than 1% once October is included, said the note. On a unit basis, Apple’s key provinces saw growth of 20% in November, but growth of just 2% for October and November. Meanwhile, exports from Zhengzhou Customs, the largest port for iPhone shipments, were up 17% on a dollar basis in November, while units were down 8%. Including October, exports were down 15% on a dollar basis and down 28% on a unit basis. Wells Fargo rates Apple market perform with a $195 stock price target, equal to 14% above its current trading level. Apple shares rose 0.5% in early trade, and are up 48% in 2017, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 25% and the S&P 500 has gained 20%.
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