Amazon.com Inc.’s stock fell 1.7% in midday trade Monday, which should come as no surprise to investors despite early reports of another big jump in overall Cyber Monday online sales. On the 11 previous Cyber Mondays, which was coined by Shop.org and the National Retail Federation in 2005, Amazon’s stock fell six times, including the past three years. The median percentage move for the stock on the first Monday after Thanksgiving has been a decline of 0.2%, while the average move on the day was a decline of 1.5%. Meanwhile, the SPDR S&P Retail ETF dropped 0.9% on Monday, which is exactly what history suggests. On the past 10 Cyber Mondays since the ETF’s inception in June 2006, it has declined nine times, with an average decline of 2.5%. That includes a 10% decline on the 2008 Cyber Monday, which was in the middle of the financial crisis. Despite Monday’s decline, Amazon’s stock is still up 13% year to date, while the retail ETF has gained 6.9% and the S&P 500 index has climbed 7.9%.
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