KeyBanc analysts on Wednesday lowered their fourth-quarter estimates for Tesla Inc.’s Model 3 deliveries, saying they expect the electric car maker to announce delivery of about 5,000 Model 3s sometime early next week. “While it is likely to be a few quarters before the company’s true Model 3 gross margin judgment day arrives, we remain sector weight as we think the M3 margin ramp will disappoint and investors will have to acknowledge no S/X growth at some point, which is not reflected in the shares,” analysts Brad Erickson and Elliot Arnson wrote in a note. The analysts said their channel checks, based on conversations with salespeople at 18 Tesla stores around the U.S., peg Model 3 deliveries at about 5,000, below their previous estimate of 15,000. “We talked to stores in California doing as many as a dozen per week with around 10 being the average, and we estimate stores outside of California were doing something closer to half a dozen per week,” said the note. “We also spoke with Tesla salespeople regarding the Model S/X and believe S/X deliveries for the quarter are tracking generally in line with management’s expectation that 2H deliveries would be ahead of 1H deliveries of approximately 47,000 cars.” They acknowledged that the shortfall is unlikely to faze investors, who are more focused on the car being produced without defects and that consumer response is favorable. Tesla shares were slightly lower premarket, but have gained 48% in 2017, while the S&P 500 has gained about 20%.
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